October 2025 Vol. 80 No. 10
Features
Mexico accelerates $6.7 billion water infrastructure plan amid U.S. water disputes
By Eugene Gerden, Contributing Editor
(UI) — The government of Mexico plans to speed the development of its water infrastructure in years to come, amid the existing threat of droughts and ongoing water disputes with the U.S.
At present, more than 64 percent of Mexico's territory is experiencing some degree of drought. As a rule, the northern states are the hardest hit, particularly Chihuahua, with most of its territory experiencing extreme weather conditions.
At least five major droughts have been recorded in Mexico in the last 15 years. (The most devastating was observed in 2023 in the city of Monterrey, which led to a severe water shortage.) Most analysts expect the current situation will continue to deteriorate, as the existing threat of new and continuing droughts is high.
As a rule, the northern and northwestern regions are home to the majority of the population and economic activity in Mexico, which means that lack of access to drinking water is a major challenge for the entire country. Also, the current level of development of water infrastructure in the country remains insufficient.
But the problem is not only related to the lack of rain, but also to the overexploitation of local water infrastructure, as well as the lack of infrastructure for water storage and treatment. According to data from the Mexican Chamber of the Construction Industry (CMIC), while 58 percent of the country’s population has water in their homes every day, approximately 6 million people still lack drinking water, and 11 million citizens lack access to wastewater infrastructure.
Probably the most complex situation is observed in Mexico City, where the age of its water distribution network contributes to losses of up to 30 percent. The current water network is not sustainable, while leaks represent huge waste and damage.
New water projects
To solve these problems, the national government plans to speed up implementation of 17 water infrastructure projects benefiting 36 million people. They were actually approved by the country’s President Claudia Sheinbaum in March, as part of the existing National Water Plan, with an overall cost estimated at $6.67 billion (122.6 billion pesos). Implementation of the projects should be completed by 2030.
As part of the plans, these infrastructure projects will be added to the existing Irrigation Technology Program, which will allow unused drinking water in agricultural irrigation districts to be used for human consumption.
Among the most important of such projects are Baja California, the Rosarito Desalination Plant, that will provide water to the residents of Tijuana and Rosarito with a total investment of $653 million (12 billion pesos); Baja California Sur, the El Novillo Dam, which includes the sectorization of La Paz, the construction of several elevated tanks and macro- and micro-metering projects.
Finally, there are big hopes for implementation of the existing comprehensive Plan for the Metropolitan Area of the Valley of Mexico. This project will provide water supply to Mexico City, the State of Mexico and Hidalgo. In the latter case, total investments are estimated at more than $2.720 billion (50 billion pesos).
So far, preparatory work for most of these projects (which are primarily in the form of various diagnostic assessments) has already begun, while their actual implementation will start in the coming months.
Funding will be carried from various sources, including the Social Infrastructure Contributions Fund I (FAIS); federalized Conagua programs such as PROAGUA, PROSANEAR and PRODDER; and direct state investments.
It is expected that this will be just the beginning, as the government plans to develop a water master plan for each state in the country, which will be coordinated with local governments to address the areas with the greatest water stress. Finally, there are also plans to speed up the cleanup of the Lerma-Santiago, Tula and Atoyac rivers.
Mexico-U.S. water disputes
In addition to development of water infrastructure, it is also important for Mexico and its government to ensure a further implementation of the existing water treaty agreement with the U.S. The International Waters Treaty between Mexico and the United States, signed on Feb. 3, 1944, establishes that Mexico delivers water to the United States from the Rio Grande, and the United States allocates water to Mexico from the Colorado River.
Recently, the Trump Administration has criticized the Mexican government for its inability to fulfill its obligations. On April 10, President Donald Trump warned that Mexico owed a significant water debt to the U.S. and threatened the country with tariffs if it failed to settle the debt which, according to him, had a negative impact on Texas farmers.
One of the most negative complexes for Mexico could be also renegotiation of the existing treaty, which may create serious problems for the country.
However, the earlier Trump statements were denied by some Mexican water officials, such as Mario Mata Carrasco, the director of the Central Board of Water and Sanitation of the State of Chihuahua. He stated that Mexico "has no water debt" and clarified that even in previous cycles, Mexico has paid its commitment to the United States in advance, while the current cycle will end only in October 2025.
As he said in an interview with the Mexican Milenio Television, the problem is not in Mexico, but between the states of Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, as “that's where the problem begins.”
Still, according to experts of Mexican National Water Commission (Conagua) the Treaty has a strategic importance for Mexico, as it receives 4.5 times more water than it delivers to the U.S.
Moreover, according to recent statements made by Humberto Marengo Mogollón, the agency's technical deputy director general, it could reach up to five times that amount if the conditions outlined in the 1944 water treaty are met.
The current tensions with the U.S. may prevent implementation of these plans. According to data from the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), as of last March, Mexico owed 1,555.9 million cubic meters of water, which must be delivered before the end of the current cycle.
However, in the current five-year cycle, Mexico has sent less than 30 percent of the water it needs, according to data from the International Boundary and Water Commission.
Changing populations
In fact, the Treaty was the work of an engineer Adolfo Orive Alba, still in force 80 years later. The agreement was signed when there were 400,000 inhabitants on the northern border with the U.S. and today there are approximately 15 million, yet the amount of water is the same as it was 80 years ago.
Under the terms of the agreement, Mexico is required to deliver 2.158 billion cubic meters every five years, an average of 431.7 million cubic meters per year. However, at present Mexico is short on this delivery, which is mainly due to droughts, so compliance with the treaty is a major challenge for the country and its government.
This is despite the fact that the Treaty does not specify sanctions or fines for a country's noncompliance; rather, the authorities of each government must reach diplomatic agreements, with the support of the International Boundary and Water Commission.
Under the terms of the agreement, a greater percentage of the water agreed upon in the treaty should be allocated to the United States. As part of this, Mexican water from international dams should be transferred to the U.S., although it is already being done in small quantities, by supplying water from the Álamo and San Juan rivers.
In general, the international dams La Amistad and Falcón, from which Mexico must extract water to deliver to the United States, show alarmingly low levels: just 11.4 percent of their filling capacity, with a combined storage of 270 Mm³. This situation is attributed to a prolonged drought that, according to the Mexican Secretariat of Hydraulic Resources of Tamaulipas, has lasted for more than two decades.
Some Mexican senior state officials say this means that the current Treaty should be renegotiated in favor of Mexico instead of the U.S.
In the meantime, amid the ever-growing threat of interruptions of water supplies from the U.S., the Mexican central government, together with regional authorities, are considering a further development and strengthening of water infrastructure of some border states.
As part of these plans, water infrastructure in Chihuahua and Tamaulipas states will be a subject of modernization in the short term. Particular attention will be paid to the issues of groundwater within the territory of both states. That should help to avoid severe water shortages in these areas similar to those which were in the past.
In the long term, Marengo Mogollón from Conagua said there is an obligation to regulate the use of the Rio Grande Basin. As part of these plans, the Mexican side will identify new water sources as potential options including exploring the possibility of building aqueducts, such as one from the Falcón Dam to Reynosa and conserve water in the border area.
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